Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/23)

We’re getting closer and closer to the playoffs in the MLB. There are still plenty of tight races in the MLB, including the NL East and the Wild Card spots in the American and National Leagues.

With so much to watch out for, here are our top three bets of tonight’s slate in the MLB.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Atlanta Braves are 1.5 games back in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies are looking to hold onto the final spot in the NL Wild Card.

This series is essential.

Tonight, Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies. He has a 2.98 xFIP over the last 30 days while striking out 30% of batters faced. He’s also limited walks to 3.3% in the last month against those same batters.

He’s taking on a Braves lineup that has struck out 24.2% of the time in the last 30 days against righties. Atlanta still has a .185 ISO and wOBA of .330, but they’ll usually struggle against righties with strikeout potential.

On the other hand, Jake Odorizzi will take the hill for the Astros. He’s a righty with a 5.20 xFIP in the last 30 days. Odorizzi will allow more fly balls than ground balls and is striking out under 21% of batters faced over the last month.

The Phillies have almost the same average as the Braves, with a .184 ISO and wOBA of .334 in the last 30 days against righties.

But Philadelphia should end up putting the ball in play more. That will give the Phillies more opportunities to win this game. Take the Phillies at home.

Bet: Phillies (-155 at DraftKings)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers

The Cleveland Guardians are going to clinch the AL Central very soon. But that doesn’t mean they won’t struggle in tonight’s game.

Cody Morris will take the hill for Cleveland with a 5.12 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also walked 13.2% of batters faced while allowing 27.3% of line drives when balls are put into play.

Morris is a righty that has quarreled against lefties. The Rangers will send out six lefties in their starting lineup. Those lefties are hitting 23.5% of line drives over the last 30 days when balls are put into play.

On the other hand, Jon Gray will get the call for the Rangers. Since returning from the injured list, Gray has gone eight innings in two games while allowing three runs off five hits. His xFIP is currently 2.49 in the month, and he’s struck out 31% of batters.

With the Guardians hitting a .134 ISO and wOBA of .293 against righties, I’m on the Rangers in tonight’s game.

Bet: Rangers (-120 at DraftKings)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight. He’s a lefty earning 37.7% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. However, Heaney has quarreled against righties, a wOBA of .327 and an ISO of .308 to his last 84 righties.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are hitting a .314 ISO with a wOBA of .382 in the last 30 days against lefties as a projected lineup. The lineup will be all right-handed, giving the Cardinals a real chance at beating up Heaney.

Meanwhile, Jose Quintana will take the mound for the Cardinals. He’s also a lefty but has just 17.3% of strikeouts over the last 30 days to batters faced.

Quintana has allowed 25.6% of line drives over the last 30 days and will take on a Dodgers lineup with a .227 ISO and wOBA of .380. Los Angeles has also hit 26.4% of line drives against lefties when the ball is in play over the last 30 days.

We’ve essentially got two lineups that have had significant success against lefties. Let’s take the over in this game.

Bet: Over 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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