NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday, June 6th

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the projection model to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 112-110, + -6.65 units, -2.9 percent ROI

Market Report Recap for Sunday, June 5th

There were no recommended bets on Sunday. The lone player prop bet (Igor Shesterkin over 30.5 saves) was a winner. I projected that the Lightning would generate north of 35 shots on goal, and they hit the net 51 times.

Market Report for Monday, June 6th

Let’s look at Game 3 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.

Colorado Avalanche (-130) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 110)

Figuring out Edmonton chances’ of winning the series in a row is easy since they must win four games in a row to stay alive. You can use the closing lines from the first three games to get an estimate, which will be around three percent. That means fair odds are around 32/1, so please don’t bet 20/1. Colorado has held the Oilers to just 53 shots in the last two games, and the Oilers are in all kinds of trouble. Evander Kane was suspended for one game for injury Nazem Kadri, and that means the Oilers will be without their leading scorer for Game 4. This hurts the Oilers more than it does the Avalanche, because they’re already missing Kailer Yamamoto and Josh Archibald. Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse are clearly not at 100 percent, either. Both players deserve full marks for trying to gut it out, but the former is not making an impact like he usually does, and the latter has turned into a huge liability in his own zone.

In the short term, losing Kane hurts the Oilers more than losing Kadri (done for series) hurts the Avalanche. Colorado is a much deeper team and JT Compher is a great example. He slid up into Kadri’s spot on the second line and scored one goal. Compher has three goals in the Western Conference final and five total in the playoffs. The Avalanche have experience putting teams away now, and they’re in a good position to do so on Monday. Expected goals (all situations) are 7.3-3.8 in favor of the Avalanche over the last two games. The Oilers attempted a comeback in Game 1, almost erasing Colorado’s four-goal lead, and that looks to have woken the Avalanche up to the fact that they can not take their opponents lightly.

Colorado has learned how tough it is to put a team away in the playoffs, and you should expect to see a solid effort from the team in Game 4. However, it might be a bit on the dull side. Nathan MacKinnon spoke on the Avalanche’s success on the road in the playoffs following the winning win in Game 3. He said, “You don’t gotta please anybody. We’re here to make it boring and gross. ” and he’s right. Shot attempts were 58-56 in Colorado’s favor in Game 3. That’s not a big margin, but only 43 of Edmonton’s shots were unblocked, and only 29 were on goal. Colorado should be priced closer to -140, according to my model, and I recommend backing them to complete the sweep at -130, but the edge is not quite big enough to justify a full-size bet.

Pick:

Colorado Avalanche -130 (half-size)

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