NFL odds: 3 NFL MVP Future Betting to Create Now

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Let’s call NFL What is the MVP Award: This is an award given to the top seed quarterback in any conference and not the QB with the highest cost.

Now here’s a fun MVP you may not know: After Aaron Rodgers was awarded the 1-seed with the Seattle Seahawks in 2014, every MVP has been the best team quarterback in a single conference. Kim Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and then Aaron Rodgers in the last two seasons. Interesting, right?

So when I show my preference for the award, I really want to know which team wins the conference. Let’s get into my favorite starting terms for NFL MVP, with all the troubles of FOX Bit.

Tom Brady: FOX bet +850 (Bet on $ 10 to win $ 95 total)

This wager is an easy and safe option on the board. Tom Brady briefly retired before returning to Tampa Bay for the season. With the help of Brady, Tampa re-signed some of their top free agents and added some more solid tackles. The team also traded for Shaq Mason and will definitely build a guard in the first round.

Tampa is loaded and next year the Buckeyes will be encouraged by how poorly they performed at home at the end of last season. The division is flawed, and I would be surprised if Tampa doesn’t run a table in the NFC South. The Bucs are the biggest competition pickers for the 1-seed, and Green Bay has no recipient. They also have to contend with the Rams, who have rebounded after their Super Bowl but play in a tough division. Also, the Rams have zero depth that can cost them if they are all injured.

Now, being the top seed is not guaranteed to be an MVP season for Brady, but we have to make sure he plays well. Last season, at the age of 44, Tom Brady threw for 5,316 yards with 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He completed 67.5 percent of his passes, which is three percent more than his career average. Brady shows no signs of slowing down its production, so I expect to see a similar season in 2022.

Josh Allen: FOX Bet +700 ($ 10 bet on winning $ 80 total)

The Bills are my current favorite to win the top seed in the AFC Conference. They added Owen Miller and OG Howard to the already fantastic list through free agency. Tre’Davious White is back from an injury that should have helped the defense that struggled. But more than anything, this is what I’m officially saying to Josh Allen, my vote of confidence and not the Chiefs. In addition, Buffalo has an easier division and is currently more talented than Kansas City.

Josh Allen was the MVP runner-up in 2020 and took a small step back last season. He completed fewer passes, threw for fewer yards and had more interceptions and fewer yards in each attempt. I think the sweet spot for his career is between his 2020 and 2021 seasons.

If Allen can stay in the 66-67 completion range, racking up about 4,500 yards, passing in the high 30s for touchdowns and rushing for 600-700 yards, he’ll be gold. Getting around 50 touchdowns and 5,000 or more total yards is clearly enough to win an MVP if the Bills are 1-seeded.

Patrick Mahomes: FOX bet at +600 (Bet $ 10 to win $ 70 total)

Despite being a Tirek Hill trader, Patrick Mahomes is a favorite to win this award. I think Mahomes will play revenge football next season after not playing to his standard last season. Mahomes also played poorly in the second half of the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, so you know he’ll be out on fire next year.

But, so far in the “down” season, he caught 66 percent of his passes for 4,839 yards with 37 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Thirty other teams would love to trade places with the Mahomes and Chiefs and have such a down season.

The Chiefs will add receivers to the draft, and their offense will be fine. The problem is their schedule that is currently the toughest in the NFL. I don’t think Kansas City will be the No. 1 seed this year, but Mahomes will still make the big mark.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for three seasons at the University of Oregon and was another team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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