MLB Odds: Red Sox-Royals prediction, odds and pick

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will face each other for the third game in a four-game series on Saturday night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Red Sox-Royals prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Boston is out of its comfort zone, sitting in last place in the AL East at 54-54. Still, Boston is just three and a half games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. The team will need to play some inspired baseball down the stretch to secure a playoff spot.

Kansas City is in a much different spot, as their 42-65 record, including a 3-7 mark in their last 10, is far removed from playoff contention. After ridding themselves of a couple of veterans at the trade deadline, Kansas City is setting up their future for the last couple of months of this season.

Here are the Red Sox-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

MLB Odds: Red Sox-Royals Odds

Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+105)

Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-126)

Over: 9.5 (-108)

Under: 9.5 (-112)

Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread

Boston has a very strong offense, ranking 11th in baseball with 484 runs scored. Boston’s 244 doubles outpace the next closest team by nearly 30. Rafael Devers has been his usual self in 2022, with 23 home runs and 30 doubles, slashing .319/.375/.596. JD Martinez, without his home run stroke, still has managed a productive line, with 33 doubles and a .280 batting average. Xander Bogaerts has also only hit 9 home runs but is hitting .315 with 28 doubles. Boston’s .253 team batting average ranks sixth in baseball. Their .407 slugging percentage is good for 11th in the league.

Nathan Eovaldi will take the ball for Boston in this one, with a 4.11 ERA signaling his up-and-down season. Away from Fenway Park, Eovaldi has been a different pitcher, with a 2.25 ERA in his nine road starts. Eovaldi’s 4.3% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile in the league. The split-finger is Eovaldi’s equalizer, with batters hitting just .163 against the offering. Boston’s bullpens have given the team fits this season, with a 4.29 ERA ranking 25th in the league for that category. John Schreiber has been a revelation in the bullpen, with a 1.49 ERA in 42.1 innings. Newly-minted closer Tanner Houck has pitched to a 2.70 ERA in 28 relief appearances, notching eight saves.

Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread

Kansas City will send lefty Daniel Lynch to the mound tonight. Lynch has started 16 games, with a 4.70 ERA in 76.2 innings. Lynch has been slightly better in his last seven starts, registering a 4.54 ERA in that stretch. Based on expected ERA, Lynch has run into some bad luck, as his expected ERA sits at 4.22. Kansas City’s bullpen has quarreled this season, with a 4.55 ERA the third-worst mark in the league. Rookie Dylan Coleman, with a 2.86 ERA in 44 innings, and closer Scott Barlow, with a 2.31 ERA and 17 saves, have been bright spots for that group.

Kansas City owns a .245 batting average as a team, landing them 14th in that category. Gone from the lineup are long-time Royal Whit Merrifield, and veteran Andrew Benintendi. Salvador Perez paces the team with 16 home runs, and rookie Bobby Witt, Jr. has slugged 15 of his own, adding 21 stolen bases. Veteran Hunter Dozier has added some thump, with 10 home runs and 21 doubles. Despite only hitting 88 home runs, this Kansas City offense finds other ways to score. Their 67 stolen bases are tied for the seventh-highest total in the league, to go with 844 strikeouts, the eighth-lowest total in the league.

Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick

Boston has a lot more to play for in this one, and it should show in the final score.

Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick: Boston -1.5 (+105), over 9.5 (-108)

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