Expert picks for MLB and NHL playoffs

All of the MLB, NBA, and NHL are in action Thursday, but some games are attracting more meaningful betting attention.

All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” – sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks – that help distinguish certain plays.

Today’s report has identified one MLB total, one MLB side, and one NHL side. Without further delay, let’s get to them.

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Game # 1 – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:35 pm ET

This is a very rare occasion – all five signal signals in favor of the under in Pittsburgh.

First, we’ve seen sharp bettors come in on under 8 runs, a number that is largely still available. Plus, big money bettors are supporting the under too. As of this writing, that side of the total has seen only 32 percent of all bets, but 77 percent of the money.

Next up is the PRO system triggering the under. The “Weather: Wind Blowing In” system, which looks for average wind speeds between five and 35 mph with closing totals between six and 11, has a historical win rate of 55 percent and a seven percent return on investment.

Furthermore, model projections suggest this total should be lower. According to Action Network MLB power ratings, the total in Pittsburgh should be 7.46. Finally, one top MLB expert from The Action Network is betting the under to satisfy all five signals.

PRO Report Pick: Under 8 Runs (+100) – Caesars

Auston Matthews # 34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period in Game 5 of the First Round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scotiabank Arena on May 10, 2022 in Toronto.
Auston Matthews celebrates his eventual game-winning goal against the Lightning in Game 5.
NHLI via Getty Images

Game # 2 – Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:30 pm ET

The Maple Leafs can close out the Lightning Thursday in Tampa and the majority of signals are going in its favor.

We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the visitors, which has received only 25 percent of bets and 18 percent of the money (translation: public bettors are heavy on the Lightning).

But, there’s also a significant discrepancy between the Leafs moneyline and our model projections. According to Action Network NHL power ratings, Toronto should actually be a -116 road favorite tonight. For reference, its current moneyline price sits at +120.

Finally, one top NHL betting expert from The Action Network is supporting the Leafs to round out the three signals going in its favor.

PRO Report Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (+115) – FanDuel

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Game # 3 – Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 pm ET

The Phillies arrive in Los Angeles only 4-6 in its last 10 games, but it’s receiving betting attention ahead of tonight’s series opener.

We’ve tracked sharp bettors coming in on the Phillies, which opened as +120 underdogs but now have a top price of +128. Additionally, there’s slight big money on the Phillies, which has seen only 20 percent of all moneyline bets against 34 percent of the total handle.

Lastly, two top MLB betting experts from The Action Network already have the Phillies moneyline in their pocket to give visitors three signals.

PRO Report Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (+120) – BetMGM


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