Deshaun Watson punishment impacted by Trevor Bauer?

Intended or not, MLB’s two-year suspension of former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is now hovering over the NFL and Deshaun Watson.

While one league’s standards of conduct and sanctioning guidelines have nothing to do with the other, both are linked to the court’s public opinion. Particularly where it concerns each league’s handling of Bauer and Watson – two of the highest-profile athletes in American sports recently face disturbing allegations of violence and misconduct against women.

Thus far, the NFL’s handling of the Watson accusations has alternated between opaque and curious, now lingering five weeks since the separate grand jury proceedings wrapped up in the quarterback without Texas. Initially, it was expected that the closing of Watson’s criminal docket would spur momentum into the league’s personal conduct. But Commissioner Roger Goodell said Thursday league investigators are still working and there is “no timetable” for a conclusion.

But in the absence of that timeline, MLB has now provided a template for the NFL to consider, suspending Bauer for two years of waking up multiple women alleging domestic violence against the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher. The decision came after the MLB allowed a February conclusion of a five-month police investigation into Bauer, which resulted in no charges being filed against him. Roughly 10 weeks later, MLB concluded its own investigation into Bauer’s conduct and delivered a suspension that echoed throughout the sports world this past week.

Nowhere outside of baseball did those echoes resonate more loudly than in the NFL’s league office, which is mounting a Watson investigation that could now conceivably drag into 2023. Watson is currently facing 22 civil suits alleging a range of sexual misconduct or sexual assault. Watson has already begun sitting for depositions in the cases and NFL investigators could potentially obtain them, as they have not yet been sealed by the presiding judge.

While the Bauer and Watson investigations are not necessarily apples to apples, both necessitate judgments in the absence of criminal charges. But unlike Watson, Bauer has not faced civil litigation stemming from the allegations against him – which means he has also been seated for depositions that could have provided additional information for investigators. That possibility played into MLB making a more swift decision with Bauer’s status than the NFL could end up making with Watson.

Before Trevor Bauer’s MLB suspension, there was really a measuring stick for the NFL and Deshaun Watson, who wouldn’t face criminal charges over sexual misconduct accusations. There is now. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

Timeline aside, the NFL must now grapple with MLB setting a significant suspension for behavior that was not charged criminally. Baseball has made it clear the decision was made on the merit of its own investigation and interviews with women who have made allegations against Bauer.

That’s essentially the same space the NFL is occupying with Watson. The league has already conducted interviews with multiple women who have filed civil suits against him, and it has made depositions and discoveries from civil proceedings that the MLB didn’t, which can help whatever decision eventually comes down the pipeline. In theory, the NFL should actually have more information than baseball ever did with Bauer.

That will create some pressure on the NFL from an optics standpoint. Because while an independent arbitrator will decide whether or not Watson committed a personal conduct violation, Goodell and the league still control any length of pending suspension. So it’s not as simple as a six-game suspension under the NFL’s domestic violence guidelines, though it will draw a fight from the NFL Players Association all the same.

In the court of public opinion, that doesn’t just pit Goodell against Watson in terms of making a statement or setting a personal conduct example. It also lines him up against MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and the Bauer decision. If an arbitrator determines a personal conduct violation has occurred with Watson, Goodell could simply issue a six-game suspension and label it as a first-time violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. Then again, he could look at each of the 22 civil complaints against Watson and determine if each should consider its own violation, likely to result in a much longer suspension due to additional factors.

This is what is waiting for Goodell now. Not just the conclusion of the league’s investigation into Watson, but how the NFL will eventually shape its response to the findings. One month ago, there was no real measuring stick, as this represents one of the most relevant sets of allegations against a player in league history.

Now there is a measuring stick. MLB provided it. When the Watson probe concludes, the NFL will decide if it wants to pay attention to it.

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